From the Editors
AVs, CVs and EVs are closely intertwined. A recent
article in
The Economist described China’s plans for the
electrified, autonomous and shared car of the future.
Some key points were:
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China wants to use industrial policy to overtake
the West on the road to the future -- including the
car of the future.
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A key component of this is a “strategy to dominate”
electric vehicles.
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China is a huge producer of batteries and wants to
be the biggest in the world, in the same way that it
has become the dominant provider of solar panels.
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China's charging infrastructure is far ahead of the
rest of the world’s. Beijing has more public
charging points than Germany.
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Colin McKerracher of Bloomberg goes so far as to
suggest that the current rapid rate of growth in
electric-vehicle sales may mean that sales of cars
powered by internal-combustion engines in China have
already peaked.
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The speed with which China is taking the lead in
electrification puts it in a good position to profit
from its convergence with two other distinct but
related big shifts in transport: autonomy and
sharing.
Given that China is the world's largest importer of
oil and that transportation accounts for about 40% of
global energy demand, a drop in China's demand for oil
has global consequences. Thought leaders predict that we
will soon see a global peak demand for oil and
thereafter the demand for oil and the
price will decrease. Canada will be particularly
susceptible because its oil is more expensive and will
be among the first to be impacted by decreasing demand
and price.
In Canada, there is too little strategic thinking. In
this election year, politicians are quick to support new
pipelines -- with taxpayers' money in many cases -- but
there is little consideration or discussion of whether
the pipelines will be needed by 2030. The long-term oil
glut is not a Canadian issue but a global one that
Canada cannot change. Some thought leaders forecast that
by 2030, the global oil and pipeline industry as we have
known it for the last 100 years will be on life support.
It is important that Canada invests tax payer dollars
into the jobs and technologies of the 21st Century --
not those of the 20th Century.
Canadian AV News
CAV Canada
2019, Canada's largest CAV conference is taking
shape. Organized by Invest Ottawa, the Kanata
North Business Association and CAVCOE, the
two-day conference will include a wide range of
keynotes, panels and -- on the afternoon of Day 2 -- a
tour of the Ottawa L5 test track and local companies in
the CAV space. An overview of the program is shown
below:
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Mon Sept 9
Morning
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Welcome and opening comments
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Keynotes #1 and #2
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Panel 1: The global view
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Lunch
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Mon Sept 9 Afternoon
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Panel 2: AV technology
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Panel 3: Business planning for the AV era
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Panel 4: CV technology
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Panel 5: Government planning, regulations and
policies
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Networking reception in exhibit area
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Tues Sept 10 Morning
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Panel 6: CAV testing and pilots
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Panel 7: Socio-economic impacts of CAVs
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Panel 8: Preview of Canada in 2030 and beyond
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Tues Sept 10 Afternoon
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The afternoon of Day 2 will comprise a visit to
L5, the new Ottawa CAV test track, and visits to
local tech companies in the CAV space.
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Colour code: Plenary sessions
/ Stream A: Technology
development and testing /
Stream B: Deployment planning
We will have
additional details of the conference in next month's
issue of AV Update.
Montreal based Marcon has published a 48-page
report titled ‘Accelerating the transition to ZEVs in
shared and autonomous fleets’. The report explores
transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) among shared
use passenger car fleets (such as Car2Go) used
within new mobility models for the movement of people.
The report includes an assessment of electromobility at
SAE Levels 4 and 5 of automation which can drastically
impact the mobility of people and goods and result in
new business models. Shared mobility business models
involve services that provide mobility on demand,
specifically taxi services, car sharing and ride
hailing. These shared mobility services, particularly
ride hailing, are expected to continue to experience
significant growth. A copy of the report can be
downloaded at
this link.
Telecom company Rogers is planning a significant
investment in British Columbia to lay the groundwork for
5G technology. This is being done in collaboration with
the University of British Columbia’s ‘Clean,
Connected and Safe Transportation Testbed’. The
testbed is composed of five distinct laboratories
focused on renewables to transportation, low carbon
fuels, autonomous connected vehicles, safe and connected
infrastructure, and smart city design. More information
is at
this link
AVs found their way into the recent Alberta provincial
elections. ‘The Alberta Party’ made introducing
AVs one of their election platforms. The party
proposed to spend up to $1.6 billion on the QE2 highway
between Edmonton and Calgary adding one lane in each
direction (261 Km) and making it suitable to deploy AVs
on this highway. According to the Alberta Party, AVs can
bring $10 billion of economic benefit to Alberta and
coupled with AI, the potential to expand Canada’s
economy by 1.6% ($26 billion). More information is at
this link
In an effort to be more environmentally friendly,
Richmond, B.C. based ‘Novex Delivery Solution’ is
using Tesla Model 3 electric vehicles to make its
deliveries in the Vancouver area. The Model 3 is
equipped with limited self-driving features. Novex
puts this vehicle’s self-driving features to the test in
the urban environments of Vancouver and surrounding
cities. They report that in congested areas such as
downtown Vancouver, the self-drive system works
only 5% of the time. In less congested areas, such as
those in Richmond, Surrey and Delta,
the performance improves to about 45%. They also report
that the Model 3 is unable to recognize certain traffic
signs, to make right or left turns without help or
handle construction zones. More information is at
this link.
Major mining companies across the world are big fans of
large autonomous haulage systems (AHS). UK-based Rio
Tinto is the world’s largest owner and oper
ator
of AHS trucks. It is planning to increase its automated
truck fleet from 80 to 140 by the end of 2019. The
company reports that on average, each autonomous truck
at Rio Tinto’s mine operated for 700 hours longer than
conventional haul trucks during 2017, with 15% cuts in
load/haul costs and zero injuries. Komatsu,
Caterpillar, Scania and Volvo Trucks
are the main suppliers of AHS trucks. It is
expected that 150 trucks will be deployed in the
Canadian oil sands over the next seven years. More
information is at
this link.
On a related AHS matter, the world’s largest mining
company – Australia’s BHP, has reported a
collision between two of its autonomous trucks deployed
at its Jimblebar iron ore mine in the Pilbara,
Western Australia. It is thought significant rainfall
may have contributed to this mishap. BHP added that no
one was working in the direct area of the collision at
the time, and no one was injured during the incident. An
investigation into the cause of the incident is under
way. BHP owns and operates 50 autonomous trucks in
its mining operations. More information is at
this link.
Canada’s Magna International is a powerhouse in
the automotive sector. It has more than 300
manufacturing sites, staffed by more than 160,000
employees. The firm is running more than 100 separate
R&D programs. It builds components for many car
makers as well as building complete cars under contract.
It is also quite active in newer areas of automotive
industry such as electric vehicles and autonomous
vehicles. It has partnerships with BMW, Intel
and Lyft among others for developing
self-drive technology. More information is at
this link.
International AV News
It has become fairly common for traditional car makers
and technology companies to team up for developing
autonomous vehicle technologies. One of the latest is
the partnership between S. Korea’s Hyundai Mobis
and Russia’s Yandex N.V.. Yandex is Russia’s
largest Internet search engine company. It also entered
ride-sharing arena when it took over Uber’s operations
in Russia. Hyundai and Yandex have now signed an
agreement to jointly work on developing driverless
technology. Yandex was also in talks with Renault SA
to collaborate on AVs with the French company. More
information is at
this link.
The City of Monheim, Germany and autonomous
shuttle maker Easy Mile will launch a permanent
AV shuttle service in that city this Fall. The service
will operate daily from 7:00am to 11:00pm. It will
employ five Easy Mile EZ10 shuttles and provide public
transportation over a 2 Km route in Monheim. More
information is at
this link.
The UK government has invested more than £500
million (about CAN $870 million) in Connected &
Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) technologies to support these
nascent industries. A new report titled ‘Connected
& Autonomous Vehicles, Winning the Global Race to Market’
by UK's ‘Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders’
and Frost & Sullivan predicts an economic benefit
to UK of £62bn by 2030. It also estimates that
420,000 new jobs will be created and more than 47,000
serious accidents prevented. More information is at
this link.
Staying with UK, in March 2019, The Department for
Transport (DfT) published a 78-page report titled ‘Future
of Mobility: Urban Strategy, Moving Britain Ahead’.
This detailed report is excellent. It sets out the
strategies envisioned by DfT to bring the socio-economic
benefits of transportation innovations to Britain.
Connected & Autonomous Vehicles (CAV) are among the many
strategies contained in the report. More information and
the download link are at
this link.
Humans must pass tests before they are allowed behind
the wheel, but there are still no comparable evaluations
for cars driven by computers. Public streets have become
a “living laboratory,” and to some people, this is a
dangerous experiment that no one consented to and cannot
opt out of. To address this issue, Uber has
sponsored a study conducted by Rand Corporation.
Rand’s 91-page report titled ‘Measuring Automated
Vehicle Safety - Forging a Framework’ looks into all
aspects of safety as it relates to automated vehicles.
More information is at
this link. A copy of the report can be
downloaded from Rand Corporation’s website at
this link.
In a somewhat related subject, there are currently no
globally accepted standards for automated vehicles. In
an effort to address this, Underwriters Laboratories
(UL) and a safety software company called Edge
Case Research are working on a draft document dubbed
UL 4600. They plan to bring together all sorts of
collaborators in this nascent project to flesh out the
draft document. Organizations with backgrounds in
standards writing, aviation, major developers like
Waymo, Cruise and Uber, small
self-driving startups, independent researchers, car
companies, and perhaps people from the U.S.
Department of Transportation are sought by UL.
Currently, the closest thing to a standard is the ‘International
Organization of Standards’ (ISO) whose ISO 26262 was
set eight years ago. This standard outlines safety in
electrical or electronic car systems. More information
is at
this link.
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ITS America has published a 43-page
Whitepaper titled ‘Driverless Cars and
Accessibility: Designing the Future of
Transportation for People with Disabilities’.
The report focuses on what the developers of
future driverless transportation systems need to
take into account to make life easier for people
with disabilities. By law, the ‘Americans
with Disabilities Act’ (ADA) of 1990, along
with state and local provisions, mandate
accessibility requirements in transportation,
with ADA applying to both public and private
ground transportation. CAVCOE's
Barrie Kirk contributed to this work. The report
can be downloaded from ITS America's website at
this link.
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Walmart -- the world’s largest retailer (11,348
stores and clubs in 27 countries) -- is planning to
deploy many robots in its stores to relieve its workers
from repeatable, predictable and manual work. Tasks such
as scanning boxes from delivery trucks and sorting them,
scanning shelves for inventory and scrubbing floors will
be gradually delegated to robotic devices. More
information is at
this link.
The ‘Trolley Problem’ is often cited as an
ethical issue in future deployment of automated
vehicles. It is argued that human-like ethics and
judgement cannot be programmed into an AV to deal with
Trolley Problem situations. Some now put forward
arguments that this can be resolved by making future
automated vehicles intelligent and self-organizing.
The underlying concept is borrowed from quantum
mechanics, specifically the ‘Pauli exclusion principle’
which states that no two identical electrons shall
occupy the same space. Similarly, future AVs will
operate on the same principal through intelligence and
connectivity thus avoiding choices under a Trolley
Problem situation. More information is at
this link.
In the wake of tragic Boeing 737 MAX crashes over
the past few months, there are now calls for much more
stringent testing and certification for automated
vehicles. The aviation industry is considered as the
gold standard when it comes to safety and reliability.
The software in self-driving cars is composed of
millions of lines of code and is far more complicated,
and untested, than those in airplanes. This makes
the matter that much more urgent for governments and
regulators to ensure the safety and reliability of
automated vehicles. More information is at this
link.
In a somewhat related story, General Motors,
Ford Motor Company and Toyota Motor Corp. are
joining forces with automotive engineering group SAE
International to establish autonomous vehicle “safety
guiding principles to help inform standards development”.
The new group, dubbed the ‘Automated Vehicle Safety
Consortium’, will begin by deciding priorities, with
a focus on data sharing, vehicle interaction with other
road users and safe testing guidelines. More information
is at
this link.
It is a well-known fact that ride hailing companies like
Uber and Lyft have lost massive amounts of
money during their short existences. A recent article in
The Washington Post argues that the future of
Uber, Lyft and other ride hailing companies squarely
depends on automated vehicles replacing human drivers at
some point in the future. To this end, both
companies have spent considerable sums on developing
their own self-driving technologies and have formed
partnerships with car makers and other tech companies.
The article can be viewed at
this link
At a recent event, Ford Motor Company’s CEO – Jim
Hackett, tried to inject some reality in how fast
automated vehicles might be deployed. While admitting
that a lot of hype surrounds AVs, he still maintained
that Ford is on track to deploy its own AVs by 2021
albeit in limited and geo-fenced applications. Ford has
reportedly spent up to US$4 billion so far on its
autonomous vehicle development work. He also said that
Ford is in talks with Volkswagen AG to jointly
develop electric vehicles and driverless cars. More
information is at
this link.
California based Proterra Inc. is a maker of
electric transit buses and associated electric charging
systems. The company has announced that it now wants to
incorporate automation into its buses. Proterra is
focusing its automation efforts on four areas. They are:
Advanced Driver Assistance Sysems (ADAS), In-depot
Automation, Platooning and a Fully Autonomous Bus.
More information is at
this link.
And finally, if you think automated vehicles are cool
technology, some are suggesting adding telepathic
controls to its already complex systems. For
example, Nissan is already working on a cap -
think of a Hipster toque with lots of protruding
electrodes - for its “brain-to-vehicle” technology. More
information is at
this link.
